32 Old Slip
New York, NY 10005
8:00 - 9:00 AM Integrity at Work Interactive Workshop presented by Simon Culhane, FSCI
Description: This interactive workshop explores real-life ethical challenges experienced in the workplace and offers attendees the unique opportunity to vote, using individual voting machines, on how they would respond should they be faced with the challenge. Anonymous voting encourages participants to vote how they would in real life rather than how they know they should.
9:10 - 9:55 AM Interactive Session #4 (45 min.)
Attendees will view one of the following:
- Money Management Tools: from Investing to Trading presented by Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT
Description: The breadth of tools available to investors varies over multiple time frames. In this session, Charlie Kirkpatrick will illustrate a number of different tactics used in portfolio management for stock selection, directional trading, and market timing for entry and exits.
- Selling Is More Important Than Buying presented by David Cox, CFA, CMT, FCSI, FMA, BMath
Description: Too many investors spend most of their investment resources on the buying decision and fail to realize that selling has a far greater impact on total return. Exiting a position determines if you make money or lose it (and how much!). What many managers fail to realize is that it is easier to add value in a bear market. Inevitably, it is during bear markets that most investors give back their hard earned gains from the prior rally as excuses, opinions and an unwillingness to adapt to changed market conditions occurs. David will share his active approach to handling different market environments and provide insights into the tools and techniques he uses to shift gears in the always dynamic stock market. This session will look at ways to identify changing conditions and techniques that David applies to manage HNW portfolios.
- Learning from the Insurance Industry: Using Stochastic Modeling to Improve Trading System Development presented by Dave Walton
Description: Can you quantify the likelihood your trading system will continue to perform well in the future? Do you think Monte Carlo simulation, walk-forward testing, or out of sample testing can provide the answer? In this session, Mr. Walton discusses why common system validation methods often provide dangerously misleading results and then introduces an alternative called stochastic modeling, a process commonly used by insurance companies to price insurance policies and other financial products. When properly applied to trading systems, stochastic modeling can overcome common development challenges including data mining bias, stateful luck, buying power limitations, and position sizing / system dependencies.
- Validating Technical Analysis for the Non-Quant presented by Matthew Verdouw, CMT, CFTe and Carson Dahlberg, CMT
Description: Investment Professionals are under pressure to be more quantitative in their process. Many Analysts and PMs are continually asked to validate their signals, strategies, and money management practice. Very few have the time to learn coding languages, or the time and resources to hire and manage a programmer, but they still have an urgent need to test and benchmark new ideas on a continuous basis. In this presentation, Mathew Verdouw, CMT, CFTe and Carson Dahlberg, CMT will explore some of the issues above and illustrate simple tools to validate different technical ideas and generate consistent reports that benchmark strategies. Mathew and Carson will explain two of the most important statistical measures every technical analyst needs to know and what they really mean. Finally, they will show how a ten hour quantitative process can be reduced to just seconds.
9:55 - 10:25 AM Break (30 min.)
10:25 -11:10 AM Interactive Session #5 (45 min.)
Attendees will view one of the following:
- NowCasting: Using Logistic Regression for the Timely Detection of Market States and State Transitions presented by David Aronson, CMT
Description: In this interactive session, David will discuss Logistic Regression: a method for combining the information in a multitude of indicators into a probabilistic assessment of the market state. Logistic regression is a form of multiple regression analysis used to indicate the conditional probability that a particular defined market state ( e.g., Bear Market, or Topping etc.) is currently in effect. Trend indicators and divergence indicators will be discussed for their potential to detect directional changes in price action and shifting market regimes. Though there is debate as to whether or not “market timers” forecast, it’s clear that the discipline of technical analysis offers the timely detection of changes in trend. Logistic regression is a way for technicians to bring rigor to this valuable process.
- Momentum Investing: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly presented by Gary Antonacci
Description: Gary will begin by explaining the origins and history of momentum investing. He will explain why momentum has been called “the premier anomaly.” Gary will describe the way momentum is most commonly used, and why this may not be the best approach. Using easily understood examples and historical research findings, Gary will show how dual momentum can simultaneously enhance investment returns while decreasing bear market risk exposure. Gary will show which assets are best to use for momentum investing and how you can implement and easily maintain your very own dual momentum portfolio. Finally, Gary will describe the pros and cons of momentum investing and the behavioral biases that you must deal with in order to become a successful momentum investor. In this talk you will learn how to:
a) Spot the best momentum investment opportunities in any market environment,
b) Protect yourself from bear markets and behavioral biases, and
c) Construct your own low-cost, rules-based dual momentum portfolio that is simple to understand and easy to implement.
- WTI: Analyzing the Fundamentals Behind Crude Oil presented by Tom Schneider, CMT, and Bert Gilbert
Description: This session will look at shipping, storage, distribution from a fundamental perspective and how these data sets can be analyzed through a technical lens. Looking at correlations through a backtesting methodology, attendees will experience how the technical discipline adds value.
11:15 AM - 12:30 PM Trend Following with Managed Futures presented by Kathryn Kaminski, Ph.D, CAIA
Description: In 2014, Alex Greyserman and Kathryn Kaminski published a book entitled Trend Following with Managed Futures. This presentation will cover core topics from this book including: A tale of trend following throughout the ages, convergent vs. divergent, modern day trend following, and CTA style analysis.
12:30 - 1:40 PM Working Lunch presented by Bloomberg
Cutting Through the Noise: Making Sense of Financial News and Social Media presented by Tom Schneider, CMT, and Allison Bennett
Description: In this session, Bloomberg’s analysts will be looking at social media as a driver in US Equities. Fundamentals by Allison Bennett and analysis of sentiment and volumes by Tom Schneider.
1:45 - 2:30 PM Interactive Session #6 (45 min.)
Attendees will view one of the following:
- Volume over price over time ... a better way presented by Bill Strazzullo CMT, CFA
Description: Bill will share the unique insights of Bell Curve Trading's market profile framework. Understanding that distribution is the position, arrangement, or frequency of occurrence over price and time, and that the volume of every exchange traded market distributes around three key measures of central tendency we eliminate the need to hypothesize, estimate, or guess in our market analysis. With simple arithmetic you can calculate where the market wants to go.In this presentation you will see market behavior simplified and then classified into two paradigms. This behavioral classification relates to the process of distribution. A balanced market yields one straight forward strategy. Understanding an unbalanced market tells us what to expect when there is a clear break from what has been established as “fair value”.In this session, Bill will review the basic tenets of Bell Curve’s methodology: balanced & unbalanced markets, how to calculate price and time objectives, how the notion of a bell shaped curve or normal distribution plays a prominent role in understanding future market moves, and of paramount importance, where is fair value (it is not a subjective or ephemeral concept, it is a fact, and you need to be able to locate it)
- The 40 Year Cycle: Its History and Current Status presented by Ron Meissels
Description: In his presentation, Ron will show the construction, history and the five manifestations of the 40-year wave (from 1819 to present) and how to recognize the beginning and culmination of the wave. Ron will share perspectives on its current status (Secular Bull Market), its forecast for 2016 and beyond, and its relevance for technical analysts in the coming years.
- Behavioral Amplification of Risk: Information in the Social Era presented by John Nofsinger, PhD
Description: An old Wall Street adage states that two factors move the market: fear and greed. This characterization is far too simplistic. The human mind is so sophisticated and human emotions are so complex that the emotions of fear and greed do not adequately describe the psychology that affects people as they make decisions. Indeed, emotions may not even drive decisions as much as psychological biases and cognitive errors. This seminar delves into this fascinating and important subject. Topics covered will be cognitive errors, risk perceptions, framing, social interaction, and more.
2:50 - 3:50 PM 50 years as a Stock market operator & the Future Global Investment Roadmap presented by Robin Griffiths
Description: Robin will share unique insights from his 50 years of experience within the investment management industry. He will also feature the evolution of his signature "Roadmap" cycle approach which is predicated on the business cycle and involves making recommendations on assets, sectors, stocks & investment styles. This is achieved through a complementary blend of qualitative and quantitative overlays, including; growth, valuation and technicals. His most recent publication titled "The Big Short" is available here.
The Technical Analyst Magazine recently re-published an exclusive tribute interview based on his 50-year career in the Investment Management Industry (see link)
3:50 - 4:00 PM Bruce Kamich presents Service Award to Ron Meisels
Description: Ron Meisels Founder and President of Phases & Cycles Inc. is also the Founder, first President and 2nd Honorary Lifetime Member (after A. J. Frost) of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA); and fourth recipient of the A. J. Frost Award for outstanding contribution to the development of Technical Analysis. In addition to his service to the Canadian Society, Ron is the Founding Secretary and past Director of the International Federation of Technical Analysts and was the Conference Chair for the 1990 Conference in Montebello. Ron is receiving the 2016 Annual Service Award. The Service Award will be presented by Bruce Kamich, CMT a longtime friend and colleague.
4:00 - 5:00 PM Keynote Presentation presented by Louise Yamada, CMT
Description: Louise Yamada, CMT is the Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors (LYA) founded October 2005. Previously she was Managing Director and Head of Technical Research for Smith Barney (Citigroup), and while there, was a perennial leader in the Institutional Investor poll and the top-ranked market technician in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. The Annual Award will be presented by Gail Dudack, CMT.
5:15 - 6:15 PM Professional Networking and Cocktail Reception